Friday, July 31, 2009
Dynamic Ratings for saturday ,Pune races 1/8/2009
1=Zen(613)-Courage Under Fire(608)-My pet Honey(603)-Easter Lily(592)
Analysis=Zen is top rated but has the service of a rider after a long holiday.Courage under fire would have prefered a little longer,no doubt if it warms up in time can trouble.My pet honey is the one they all will have to beat.
2=Caramen(604)-Estevez(601)-Prince Brijendra(594)-Appalina(580)
Analysis=The First two on rating are very speedy and will dominate.
3=Truinfo(601)-River Route(588)-Desert Queen(588)-Blu Marine(583)
Analysis=River Route is the one they will have to tackle.
4=Arts(643)-Check her Out(639)-Riding fantasy(628)-Game of power(608)
Analysis=Arts followed by Check her out.
5=Cambiosa(595)-Rockeby Venus(568)-Blade Runner(562)-Imperio(557)
Analysis=The rider choice of Cambiosa is a bit preplexing.Rocky by is also no great one .Blade Runner and Imperiosa according to me is the one they will have to tackle with.
6=Algorithams(644)-Bella(623)-Encouragement(623)-Generalissimo(620)
Analysis= Although first in rating in my opinion ALGO will find it difficult.Race should be between Bella and the evergreen Generalissimo.
7=RedDawn(655)-war of attrition(642)-Ponyta(642)-Polariser(638)
Analysis= Red dawn is the one they will have to beat.There are alot of pace makers in this race and as Red dawn rushes late lets hope it warms up in time to land the spoils.
8=Secret Agenda(631)-Black Poridge(623)-Arabian Power(588)-Sun Burst(575)
Analysis= The first two will be there.
All the best
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Dynamic ratings for Friday 31/7/2009
1=Alluring(541)-Sunny Connexion(539)-Classic commander(529)-Attaturk(515)
Analysis= Its a straight fight between Alluring and Classic Commander.
2=Simply Phenomenal(578)-Voice of India(572)-Leading lady(565)-Haute appeal(560)
Analysis=Simply Phenomenal and Leading lady are the one -two choice.Voice of India would have prefered 7F but can land a place gamble tommorrow.
3=Carnival of joy(568)-Peace maker(556)-Lowndes Square(554)-Best Time(550)
Analysis=COJ and Peace in my opinion would have prefered 6F.BEST TIME is the one they will have to beat.Just have a look of the Video when it last ran.Covered nearly 8 lenghts and was flying on the rails once it was Alerted.I think it will be hard to toss Tommrrow.
4=Palazzios Sun(660)-Diamond Hunter(637)-Originality(634)
Analysis=Pallazios sun has tackled them all once and with a rating of 660 can do an Encore.Originality will follow for SHP as Diamond hunter is not in the same winter form.
5=Table Mountain(575)-Native talent(573)-Dantes peak(572)-Portobello(566)-Ciboney(566)
Analysis=a closely rated one and requires very detailed analysis.Table mountain although is top rated ,the bunch in which it participated and beat was very poor as also Dantes peak it likes distance but the bunch it ha sos far tacled is poor.So the balance three will be seen at the busy end.Native talent definetlyis there,PortoBello mind you last run has to be taken with a pinch of salt was out for Airing ,and is the one along with CIBONEY whom they have to beat.
6=Natouchka(590)-Mighty Monarch(573)-Star resence(572)-Leopoldo(555)
Aalysis=Natouchka seems to have a poor set to deal with .Amongst the other three,LEOPLODO is the one who will run close.Make a note of it for a sure long shot place bet.
7=Fair Option(598)-Desert Rule(590)-Talk of the devil(589)-The last samurai(588)-Spark of reverance(588)
Analysis=Fair option back from Derby to open class,well is top rated and is definetly in contention.Amongst the balance closely rated ones,the Old war horse,TALK of The Devil and Spark of Rveterence are likely to trouble the best.
All the best
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
dynamic ratings for Thursday bangalore=30/7/09
1=Excelent ability(581)-Luminous Gold(558)-Cracker Jack(556)-Pleasant Glory(552)
Analysis=Just Difficult to see Excellent Ability get beat in this set.Luminous is better off over 6F,Cracker jack is totally off form in spite of decent Rating and Pleasant struggled last outing in a mediocre set.
2=Prince Norbet(531)-Victoria(530)-New Pastures(530)-Track wonder(530)
Analysis=A very closely rated race.But it boils down to a straight fight between the first two.My vote goes for an Each way bet on VICTORIA.
3=Amazing Ray(600)-Leaveit to Me(573)-Target Achiever(552)-Ruby legend(537)
Analysis=Amazing Ray is a tempermental filly but in this bunch has no opposition.Watch out for Target Achiver a long priced place.
4=Easy(590)-Super Sonic(574)-Shisham(570)-Sunny land(562)
Analysis=A judicous ride will see Easy really "EASY" passing the finish line first.
5=Blink(616)-Balance de Power(605)-Star wave(594)-Fire Zone(588)
Analysis= Blink really has the merit to pull off.Note Star Wave was ridden to the ground last time over 1800mts if genuinely"ON" tommorrow then its the one they have to beat.
6=Surprise package(597)-Movie Queen(594)-Refresh(587)-Colnelduf(584)
Analysis= with the right type of Intention its Colnell duff whom they have to beat.First run over 1400mts under heavy going it was leading upto last 100mts ina scramble in higher set.It as good rating for this set and can win.
7=So much More(575)-Super yatch(572)-Ready to Mingle(569)-Royal bank(569)
Analysis= So much more in spite of high rating i feel has reache dits peak.Super yatch if given a good ride by thie boy will run away from this field.
8=Kickin ing(590)-Gold Crown(584)-Agility(574)-B Pasion(569)-Jamacian Bolt(569)
Analysis=Kickin king has been hiding its form under bushel one of these days it will strike.
AAll the best
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Dynamic Rating for Hyderabad-29/7/09
1=Kansas city mac(544)-King of Court(540)-Alberto Star(538)-Vijays Famme(526)
Analysis=Kansas city is knocking at the door and with run benefit will run a good race,Vijays famme is the one who can run close
2=El Paso(582)-Rudolph Valentino(574)-Royal embassy(566)-King size(564)
Analysis=After summering well EL has improved its DH very well and will be hard to Toss.Rudolph valentino will follow it home.
3=Milenium Queen(567)-Debonaire(553)-Penumatcha(550)-Taste Of Indai(548)
Analysis=The first three are close.My vote goes to Penumatcha.
4=Cabochan(540)-Madho(532)-Golden sabot(525)-Spectacular Hero(520)
Analysis=The first two will fight.Madho is the one who all have to beat.can stage a pillar to post victory.
5=Accordian(600)-Alukhas(586)-Caligate(580)-Music express(580)
Analysis=Caligatewould prefer a bit longer,Amongst the balance Accordian is also speedy but not as speedy as Alukhas and Music express who i feel will dominate.
6=Kohinoor Diamond(552)-Pretty fit(540)-Retro magic(55)-Bentota(529)
Analysis=Another one-two who should inish in same order.
7=---------------
8=Toofan express(588)-Costa mesa(587)-Essence(584)-Green Vision/Easy touch(571)
Analysis=Toofan would have been prefered but 1000 may be sharp as also for costa mesa.Essence if it hits the front will make them run.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Mysore Ratings for Tues day 28/7/09
1=Ranveer(563)-Analika(551)-Cadre Noir(546)-Romantic Design(546)-Mauratius star(546).
Analysis=Analika will tire out,Mauratius star is alate rusher but Ranveer is the one they have to beat.
2=Pancho Pete(566)-A.Senturi(565)-Musical Signature(550)-Sign of Luck(550)
Analysis=Race is between the first two.Pancho pete will surely place atleast
3=Raging River(565)-Pocket Dynamite(548)-fathers Glory(547)-son of Fortune(547)
Analysis=Raging River ha sgot the speed to upset.Fathers glory a huge gamble had failed last time can make amedns.
4=Stonoway(584)-Master Prospect(577)-Kaliyug raja(572)-Golden Kiss(563)
Analysis=Well the first two but if Golden Kiss is on job it should win.
5=Always for u(590)-Snap Dragon(584)-Royal view(581)-Greek Ship(579)
Analysis=Snap dragon would prefer 6F,so Alaways for you and Grek ship can be there.
6=Surya rath(585)-Suave(582)-Kandiate*571)-Time is precious(568)/Ciampino
Analysis=The first two will atleast be in one-two
7=Raiders sun(600)-Fire Brigade(592)-Toofan mail(*583)-Lyra(576)
Analysis=With top weight still raiders can upset.Lyra sure place
8=---------
9=ChocklateBrown(586)-I wanna fly(584)-Zooming(576)-Penny tweeedy(576)
Analysis=Zooming for an each way bet
10=---------
Some Observations on this weekend Racing
The most impressive runner over this week end at Bangalore was DARTNAGNAN.If you happen to get an oppurtunity just see the video.It was just out for an airing and not exerted at any stage of the race as the more fancied GM was the intrest.
It also enjoys good rating of almost 594(very good upper side of 60-90),and my observation is from next outing onwards it is set to reel off some good events.
Next is SENORA ENCIMA.Enjoying excellent rating its being exploited over sharp distances.In my opinion 1600mts is ideal and will perform well there.
VICTORIA another one with good rating was out for an airing.A ready made winner next outing.
VOODOO MOON,1200mts was too sharp was in the fight all the way.Next outing over 1400mts will return the investments made this time.
HILL OF GRACE,is haveing a superb rating of 602,and with alittle dropp in scale will strike.As also MILAGRO
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Dynamic rating for Sunday 26/7/2009
1=Trend tracker(453)-Victoria(537)-Mexican wave(526)-Attaturk(526)
Analysis=Victoria has improved her Dynamic rating very much and is the one they all will have to catch.Watch out for Trend Tracker its hiding true potential will blast out one of these days.
2=Devil Grandma(578)-One track Minded(574)-All Rise(548)-Mojo(544)
Analysis=This race is just between the first two.In my opinion One track Minded will win.
3=Aspiring Seven(566)-Voodo Moon(559)-Shes Big(558)-Romance in the Air(556)-Pinaakini(555)
Analysis=But for Aspiring Seven look how closely the others are rated.The speed of Aspiring seven will see it on the board.Among the rest Voodo Moon is the one who has been running in good company and can strike.
4=Alcestis(585)-Lush lashes(584)-Amazing queen(580)-Step in Style(575)
Analysis=Amazing queen and Step in style will prefer a bit longer.Lush lashes has developed the habit of not being up with the pace.Looks like ALCETIS will emalute its dam who is the record holder for this distance in Mysore.
5=Vayuputra(565)-Glory bound(564)-Fantastic flame(559)-Your Destiny(556)
Analysis= If the burst of vayuputra is rightly used it should tackle this bunch very easily.Watch out for Your destiny last time was badly hampered and was seen finihing on will be there.
6=Gypsy Magic(598)-Leornado(594)-Systematic(590)-Tanzanite(590)-Crusing(590)
Analysis= Dont be surprised but Gypsy magic is the one they all will have to beat.Others are very closely rated.Hope Gypsy will win back her followers tommorrow.
7=Hill of Grace(602)-Gift a diamond(602)-Milagro(580)-Undue(580)
Analysis= In spite of the top weight Hill of Grace will run one hell of a race tommorrow.Gift may be a longer odds place bet.
8=Six Shooter(598)-Atlantus(596)-Nox(595)-Talisker(595)
Analysis= Six Shooter followed by atlantus.
9=Flaming Lombhorgni(613)-My Friend paul(600)-Phoenix reach(591)-Read my Mind(581)
Analysis=Flaming Lombhorgni definetly ha sthe potential.My friend paul also but is not reproducing the form.But the danger to the best is READ MY MIND.
All the best
Friday, July 24, 2009
Dynamic ratings for Bangalore:25/7/09
1=Spark Of solerno(577)-Real Gladiator(561)-Worth a Million(548)-Show Horse(548)
Analysis:Race will be centered between the first two.Spark in my opinion is haveing an edge.Note Worth a Million who will dfinetly be a long priced place.
2=Imperial Guest(584)-Trillion Win(580)-Spark of Marchador(580)-Ice Mint(571)
Analysis:Since the dark brown have started firing Imperial guest needs to be supported.
3=Freedom Fighter(530)-Flashing Crown(525)-Admiranda(519)-Persian Rock(517)
Analysis:Mostly Flashing Crown but Persian Rock can be close with the right intention.Freedom Fighter should not be left out has a good potential to trouble ,place good chance.
4=Noble sacrifice(584)-Spark of Bronte(576)-Caynee(573)-Rugged Beauty(572)
Analysis:Dont be surprised if Noble sacrifice sets up an Encore,Spark looks to be the only one to run close.
5=Einsten(607)-Western Challenge(605)-Milford(605)-Tomsk(604)
Analysis: 4 horses within two points a really tough one.But on detailing,Einsten not in this company.Milfford never runs two races alike.So it boils down WC and TOMSK.Western Command if ridden judiously from front can win this pillar to post.
6=Spandau ballet(571)-Henerys secret(566)-Alcasaye(566)-Noble Kingdom(554)
Analysis: Current form of Spandau ballet is superband is the obvious choice.If the last run of Noble Kingdom is to be analysied ,with a slipped stirrup it flew.With the luck of race can upset.
7=Senora encima(567)-Alaric(552)-Hurricane Bolt(552)-Royal legend(548)
Analysis:SENORA ENCIMA is a hard nut to crack Tommorrow ansd stand as the best bet.
8=Flower Alley(578)-spring a surprise(570)-Criminal Lawyer(563)-Spark of joy(560)
Analysis:Flower Alley is the one they all will have to beat.
All the best
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Dynamic ratings for Friday 24/7=Pune
1=Can Can(606)-Expensive affair(605)-Sudden Impact(589)-Johnny Bravo(580)
Analysis:Can Can would have prefered a bit longer.Based on the improvement in the DH Expensive affair ha sshown from last run ,looks like its hard to beat.
2=Share My dreama(588)-Astral(580)-Sharp Memory(578)-Golden Kingdom(578)
Analysis=The youngster ASTRAL shoild win.
3=Kingdom of Love(640)-Nitrous(606)-Ming(602)
Analysis:Kingdom of love if fit can win otherwise Nitrous will be tough to beat.
4=Patek Phillip(606)-Highland Glory(604)-forbes List(602)-GoGuzzi Go(602)
Analysis=Patek Phillpe is a blood vessel problem horse.The best of the rest is Highlnd Glory
5=Yankee Woman(611)-Secret Magic(586)-Our Fortune(573)-Pound Flash(564)
Analysis=Youngsters ,caution is advised,but Yankee woman.
6=Highland Warrior(610)-Red Cloud(608)-Tattenhoe(604)_Solid Rock(595)
Analysis=Highland Warrior may be tough to beat
all the best
slight change in todays DH
pl note in the third,
WILD TORNADO after its last run ha simproved its rating to 640 level and is definetly in contention for place atleast today.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Dynamic ratings for Thursday Pune 23/7/2009
DISCLAIMER:The first on rating need not always win .The ratings give the potential of the contender apart from this lot of other factors like Fitness of horse,stable intention,Luck of the race all play a major part.
1=Alohamora(603)-Sail Thru(603)-Royal Hunter(592)-My pet Honey(592)
Analysis:with speedy customers like the first two,My pet honey will find it difficult.From the balance three,looks like the two Stable mates will dominate the finish.Royal hunter will surely hit the board.
2=Western Challenge(600)-Lightning Cavalary(597)-Forever Amber(585)-Thanda(585)
analysis:Thanda with weight is difficult.With srinath to guide looks like Western Challenge will finally come out of maidens rank with a pillar to post effort.
3=Rohans Glory(660)-Ares(655)-Secret admirer(639)-Kiss away(638)
Analysis: This looks a tough one.Rohan glory ha sthe long lay off factor.Ares may find the distance against.Secret admirer also would ahve prefered longer.Kiss Away looks like can do it.If RG is tried then it will be a different game.
4=Confiserie(576)-Divine majesty(568)-River Pride(558)-admirals quest(544)
analysis:Scholar is first run so no rating.From the above looks like Confisrei and Divine Majesty have the best credentials.
5=Alexus(626)-River Blitz(612)-Oh so romantic(612)-Kapathos(592)
Analysis: Alexus is in form but would have prefered longer.River Blitz looks the one they all will haveto beat.
6=Star Impact(646)-Spitz(628)=Generalissimo(627)-Feet of Flames(620)
Analysis: Strictly between the first two.If the final burst of Star is utilised it should win.
7=White hart lane(570)-Elegante(564)-Highland bounty(547)-Hi Dolly(547)
Analysis: The first one is cut above this company and can win.Elegante can be close.
All the best
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Dynamic handicap ratings for hyderabad-22/7/09
1=Pythagoras-Aurburn star-party doll-Emerald bay
Notes=Pythagoras should open the season without any problem.The balance three Party doll is best.
2=May fair girl-Smrithiman-Athaulpa-Curency Chest
Notes=rider choice of may fair girl is suspect.Currency chest is the speediest of all and can place.Athalpa is well summered.
3=Gallant Prince-Al Jeezan-Victorous sally-Al malawi
4=Global presence-Glaring godzilla-Fabulous crown-red fairy
5=Cygnet-Kohinoor diamond-recast-Fair touch
6=Standing Ovation-Walk in park-al Jouf-Star spell bound
Notes=In all probability the first two will fight
7=Sugar lady-Classic one-King of habasse-Arsham
Notes=Classic one if tried can beat this lot
8=Doing My best-Spy mate-dancing touch-One in all
9=Essence-Southern spice-Heydan-Colour ful
Notes=Essence is very speedy and can ake them all run if she gets a flier.
First day caution advised.All the best
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Dynamic rating for Mysore 20/7/09
1=Ranveer(552)-Wellington(548)-San Gimminano(538)-Land of Smiles(538)
2=Winning attitude(554)-Bulbasar(547)-Run for fame(545)-Ametrine(534)
3=Turbanator(581)-Anoosheek(570)-Peace talks(562)-Living Free(560)
4=Black cat(640)-Stornway(593)-Zooming(591)-Ambiens(589)
5=Demanding(582)-Careerist(575)-No name(573)-serious warrior(570)
6=Beauty on duty(584)-Boston ranger(566)-Worth a gold(564)-Gold grid(558)
7=The World in Mine(578)-Time for All(555)-Sky Fleet(555)-Bullet Train(546)
8=Thunder on(606)-Korporate(599)-Maratha conqueror(597)-Satin Slipper(585)
9=Mr magic(583)-Pokeman master(581)-Rota roa(580)-Kangroo Punch(561)
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Dynamicrating for Sunday 19/7/09
1=Fleet indian(566)-Sherman(558)-Red Stone(552)-Shades of white(540)
Notes=The race is strictly between the first two.In all probabilities Fleet Indian will not lose.But watch out for Sherman.last outing dropped the rider and ran the course.Yet it was up with the field.Today it has good rating also and definetly will give anxious moments at long odds.It will definetly try start to finish and Place is certanity.
2=Calypso Star(602)-Gold crown(592)-Russian dancer(591)-Classic concept(578)
Notes=On rating they are in above order and likely to finish so.
3=Portabello(571)-frozen Fire(564)-Social climber(545)-Star assembly(542)
Notes=Stictly between the first two.They will finish one-two either way.Portabello needs a strong rider to control with a little bit of luck can upset again.
4=Ice Breaker(648)-Star of gold(620)
Notes=The ratings says it all.Spark of gold for a easy place bet.
5=Mighty heart(618)-Own Voice(600)-Bee quick(595)-River Island(590)
Notes=true Mighty heart is first in rating,but two factors against it.a)The blinding speed of bee Quick.b)Top weight.In my opininon since Own voice has improved its rating it will be tough to beat.
6=Media man(575)-Sudden Thunder(570)-Seven star(560)-Spark of adventure(545)
Notes=The first three arethere.But like i commented last week,the day Sudden Thunder breaks level it will be tough to beat.May be tommorrow is the day.
7=Attaturk(546)-Commanche War paint(542)-Draupadi(538)-Meican wave(535)
Notes=Attaturk and Mexican wave,1200mts is not suitable.If Commancehe war paint is "on",well thats it.
all the best
Do keep posting comments on any improvement,fedback .
Friday, July 17, 2009
Dynamic rating for bangalore18/7/09
1=Alluring(577)-Leopolda(565)-Mercutio(563)-Classic comander(555)
Notes=Alluring and Leopolda will definetly be there.(Incredible first outing so no DH)
2=Leading lady(551)-Isnbayeya(545)-pretty and fast(540)-Mega joy(537)
Notes=Isinbeya was given an easy run last outing and is the one they all have to beat.Pretty and fats is definetly a danger.the day it takes a level jump and runs with the field first part of the race its a threat.
3=Brunetta(596)-Bucephalus(595)-Virtuosa(582)-Black beauty(567)
Notes=Virtuosa and Black beauty will cut each others throat and hence can be left off.It boils down to be a straight fight between Brunetta and Bucephalus.
4=Kyles of Beauty(623)-Jersy Pride(616)-Rimpuche(615)-Sugar ray(613)
Notes=In his presnt condition Kyles will continue its winning streak.Sugar ray is the only one who can run close.
5=Good companion(578)-Hidalgo(569)-Satin wood(559)-Whisper Valley(554)
Notes=First three are in it.On analysis,Good Companion may not defy the weight.Hidalgo rushes very late and cannot be trusted.Satin wood with the right type of Money coming in should win.
6=Kajuraho(609)-Poetic(594)-Spark of class(592)-Perfect analysis(590)
Notes=KAJURAHO has hoodwinked all enough.Tommorrow its a worth each way chance.Mostly should win.Spark of Class is certin place.
7=Aspiring Seven(565)-Dam good(557)-Retro queen(549)-Kem rock(547)
Notes=Aspiring seven if judiously handeled can win.Dam good is definetly a threat.
All the best
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Dynamic rating for Friday 17/7/2009,Pune
1=Up North(573)-Forest native(571)-Winning treat(566)-Golden grace(560)
Notes=Up north a bit old in tooth but maintains zest.Ig Golden Grace is backed down it should win.forest native is certain Place.
2=Dangerous belle(610)-Paper King(591)-Secret talk(590)-River Tern(581)
Notes=Secret talk would prefer a little longer.Hence the race boils down to the first two.It will be close.
3=Knigt of Windsor(633)-American Idol(626)-classic ruler(619)-Arbian champ(614)
Notes=The jockey choice on KOW and AC is preplexing.That means race boils down only to American Idol and Classic ruler.
4=Lyrical lass(599)-Refuse to bend(593)-Hi Dolly(587)-Step by step(582)
Notes=If Lyrical is there well it should win easily.
5=Sea treasure(657)-Barbara(637)-Secret Glory(626)-Sea queen(621)
Notes=Sea treasure will be hard to beat tommorrow.But note since barabar and Secret glory would prefer a bit longer,Sea queen the owner mate of seatreasure can be a long shot for place.
6=Aurora aureleas(654)-Sucessor(648)-Ekhabinskya(647)
notes=closely rated but the style of race where Sucessor and Ekhabinskya will cut each others throat will make things easy for Aurora aurealis who according to me will be anothe rgood bet for the day.
7=moon flower(615)-Feona(610)-river rule(592)-Great white(588)
Notes=Moon flower is first in rating but is aone pace sort prefering 1400mts.In 1200mts it can be tackled by any of the balance three.
8=Flaming arrow(673)-sierra vista(616)-Pretty Commission(614)-highland Bounty(612)
Notes=Flaming arrow with the right intention of the connection cannot get beat.Close for place between the balance three.i prefer highland Bounty to place.
9=Kings troop(599)-Tromos(588)-Slickkit(586)-Tyumen(582)-La Joie De Vie(580)
Notes=an tough one.mainly becasue the good yougster Chotte begum has had only one run.Normally the dynamic rating is established after three runs. Kings Troop nevert runs two races alike.tromos may finf 1400 mts to sharp a sits a lazy type.So caution is advised in the last race.
All the best.
An insight on Dynamic handicaping theory.
Pl find an insight on the dynamic Handicapping theory: Taught in a session taken by mr Praksah Gosavi.
Its common knowledge that if we make a purchase of something weighing about 4 kgs and carry it our pace of walking is slower than usual.if it takes 3 minutes to walk one furlong bare handed,thenit will take 3.5 minutes to cover same distance with the weight.This basically is the underlying principle of any handicap theory.
Horses are alloted different weights based on their performance, by the official handicapper so that all are on paper supposed to run with same chance and if its true then there will be multiple dead heats in all events.in reality it does not happen as we all know that apart from handicap several factors like fitness,stable intention,luck of the race etc come to play.
But in reality the handicap theory helps to narrow down the choice to three /fourin a race haveing best chance.
In the old convential Handicapping system,which also i used to practice based on a book called"master Key of races " by T Bhutaney.Here the comparision is made between the official handicapper and my system based on revised weights.The calculation is done based on the number of lengths the horse has won by,winner beating the second,second to third and third to fourth.
Generally in covential handicapping much stress was placed only on the first four on board and for the rest a thumb rule is used to reduce the weight(ratingwas not in vouge then)in when they next run.1 length was considered as 1.5 kgs and an adjustment was made accordingly when the horse ran next.
Here the simili ends and Dynamic handicapping is more in detail.In DH the revised rating calculation is done upto the horse finishing last and all four parameters that is distance won/lost,weight carried,timing,and the track correction are applied and no thumb rule deductions./drop in ratings for no show animals.
Here is where the Dynamic Theory has an edge.It considers The distance by which won/Lost,the distance ran, the timing clocked and most important the MOTHER CHART, the judious understanding of the same helps to get a near perfect rating for comparision when the horse races next.The mother chart is so unique for each Category and can be explained only in detailed interaction.further when the horse races next there is an adjustment that has to be done for each and every parameter that is weight carried,distance run,category ,timing clocked,vis a vis last run and present run.
Finally when all runners have their DH avaialble look for the First three/Four highest in rating in the race and in all probabilities the likely contenders are narrowed down.
The updation of the DH by using the scientific calculaor and formulas given in the detailed notes has to be done relegiously.Nothing comes without sweat and effort, the same principle holds good here also.One has to work to keep the Revised ratings updated and need to spend time.
No system can in racing give cent percent results because other than the DH other factors are also there as discussed earlier, which i suppose all knowledgeable agree.
I have been trying my hand on several handicapping theories But my experience with this system over the past 5 years is its results are quite satisfactory and can be felt only if one experiences over a continous span.
All the best.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Dynamic ratings for PUNE 16/7/2009
1=Es sider(606)-Real dream(598)-Sun burst(586)-Beacon Light(585)
notes=Although Es sider is highest rated,in my opinion 1000mts is not its cup of tea.Its coming down in distance and cannot match strides with speedy ones like Real dream and BeconLight ,who i feel will dominate the opening event.
2=Double delite(609)-Adams law(602)-Cherokee(601)-Resilence(600)
Notes=Here too Double delite and resilence are not correctly placed over a scruyy ,so it boils down between Adams law and cherokee.
3=Rokeby Venus(588)-Red dragon(576)-Ariane(558)-Bemisal(548)
Notes=Two horse race but looks like Rokeby venus will have it easy.
4=Poariser(620)-Nuncio(606)-Arbudh(604)-Land lord(580)
Notes=Polariser is cut above this class as also Arbudh.Watch out for these two.
5=Dancing glory(625)-Romantic Impact(611)-Arkhos(610)-Ikaria(602)
Notes=A long overdue Dancing glry should oblige.
6=Sea of Kisses(600)-Swahili(583)-Weizho(583)-Cavrodosi(583)
Notes= Sea of kisses will take a lot of beating.The balance three are closely rated for minor berth slot.Swaheli should follow Sea of Kisses.
7=Oyster Pearl(676)-RedRomeo(643)-Pepe junior(644)-Schnell(638)
Notes=Oyster pearl has got a very good DH.But it will have to tackle the fitter Red Romeo who in my opinion will be hard to beat tommrow.
8=Royal gesture(616)-Creme de creme(607)-Super King(570)Sandringham(570)
Notes= Normallythis race should be left alone as there are lot of youngsters yet to have a run and the ones who have run are yet to establish their rating.However i feel a place bet on the first two is worth while.
9=RedIndian(653)-Call to rms(653)-Monopoly(653)-Spica(640)
Notes=the first three are clsoely rated.But amonst them,Monopoly will run a blinding race and 1200mts will be a little too much for her style.Red indian is consistent and has the capability.Call to arms may find the distance sharp.Spica is the one to watch out apart from red Indian.
10=Stud of gold(592)-major wager(590)-Thundering star(590)-Bonny Light(588)
Notes=A closely rated one.But please note Major wager and Thundering star can win any day they are genuinely tried.So if odds are temting worth a try.
All the best for the season.
Monday, July 13, 2009
An honest updated Feedback requested
an effort in that direction can only narrow down the choices as racing has got lot factors.to expect that the highest rated horse as per my calculation should always win ,its not possible ,hope we all agree.Somedays although rare in my experience the system may not work as satisfactorily.
In racing there are lot of factors like,Fitness of the animal,Intention of the stable,luck of the race and so on and so forth.
So any logical system will help to narrow down the selection .I can lets say the Dynamic handicapping for ex helps to narrow down to say 80% but the balance 20% depends on other factors and that is why the first on rating always does not win.
Some of the comments on the Blog are very disturbing and discouraging and hence a time for resproctive has come.
Its a request to all who follow this blog to please post your honest opinion whether my ratings are of support in some way or other and worthwhile continuing.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Dynamic ratings for Mysore-13/7/2009
Notes=Closely rated best left alone.
2=Mauratius Star(546)-Khushi(538)-Arisia(538)-Celerity(531)
Notes=Mauratius star worth an each way chance.Celerity for place.
3=Gershwin(553)-Jericho(551)-Sticki wicket(546)-Cruise contro(535)
Notes=gershin will continue its winning ways.Sticki can place
4=Ciampino(570)-Veda Priya(564)-Hochimimh(562)-Roanke(558)
Notes=Ciampino is very consistent and will surely be there.If Ho Chi Minh is backed it should win.
5=Arabian speed(620)-Bravo bedford(620)-snap dragon(604)-raiders sun(601)
Notes=Arabian speed is i form but this company is tough.
6=zindabad(566)-Cadre Noir(558) - master prospect(553)-masheer(553)
Notes=Zindabad and master prospect are the key contendrs.
7=Pat on back(585)-Royal hawk(571)-Aristic Way(562)-Ohiyesa(561)
8=Suave(565)-Demanding(560)-Forever Grande(555)-Way to wealth(549)
Notes=Demanding will not carry weight.Suave should win from Way to wealth.
All the best
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Dynamic Ratings for Sunday12/7/2009
1=Pelikano(571)-Sapthaswa(549)-Vivacity(543)
Notes=Pelikano can stage a pillar to post victory tommorrow.Sapthaswa is an out and out stayer and will be there.Vivacity looks doubtful.
2=Glory to dancer(554)-Kalyan(554)-Agility(553)-Jiya oh jiya oh(553)
Notes=Four of them within one point of rating a real close one.My personal choice would be betweenGlory and Agility.
3=Alacrity(598)-Milagro(586)Astounding blue(586)-Luck Number Leven(582)-
Noyes=Alacrity wont get beat.pl recall the colts trial .At 250 mts out Alacrity showed tremendous accelrtaion and was in second spot fighting.Then weakned.Tommorrow over 7F cannot lose. The threat if at all will be from MILAGRO.
4=Glitterato(590)-Trillion win(580)-Supreme Arch(573)-Mr President(569)
Notes=Youngsters still their rating not established as each has only one or two runs.Ignore.
5=Win pretty baby(558)-Quiet Achiever(555)-Clousea(552)-Caspian sea(549)
Notes=Closely rated but my vote goes to Win pretty baby.last outing was out for an airing.
6=Spearhead(619)-Classervile(619)-Fair option(606)-Gypsy magic(605)-Jacqueline(605)
Notes=Five of them above rating of 600 looks to be in contention.On analysis Jacqueline i felt was coming back to the field last time and is doubtful over 2000mts.Gysy magic can hack this field but for its moods.That leaves us with the first three.I still feel that Spearhead 's run in the colts was not genuine and he is the one they all will have to beat.Claservile and fair option will run one hell of a race mind it.
7=Oban(602)-Inspiring trust(602)-Bourbon bay(600)-Silken Thomas(592)
Notes=Inspiring trust may be short of run.Silken thomas is aone pace sort so it boils down to Oban and BBay.If the burst of Oban is used rightly it will win.
8=Equidae(595)-Talk of the devil(585)-Blink(585)-Mothers pride(580)
notes=It needs to be seen whether equidae will get the trip.Else the two old war horse Talk of the devil and mothers pride will fight out.
9=Table mountain(572)-super spear(559)-Media man(555)-Paint me Red(544)
Notes=dont look beyond Table mountain.
All the best
Friday, July 10, 2009
Dynamic Ratings for saturday 11-7-2009
1=Sun Classique(576)-Spark of solerno(567)-Might Prince(564)-Peace maker(558)
Notes=Sun Classique would have prefered a 7F trip.Neverhless this bunch is very poor and can win.The most speedy among the lot is peacemaker but appu is not his old self.
2=Red renegade(582)-Sherman(572(-Real magic(556)-Crimonal lawer(548)
Notes=a stright fight between the first two.Sherman is sure to place.pl note there is a good first timer Alvino who has no rating being first outing.
3=SilverParis(535)-Track Wonder(530)-Valiant Bid(516)-Simply Phenomenal510)
Notes=Dont miss out on a good each way bet at long odds on Silver Paris.This horse if given a judious ride tommorrow will trouble the best.Trackwonder although in rating but will find tough.Simply phenomenal weight may stop.Valiant bid has improved its rtaing and will be there.
4=Caprioska(594)-Marcegalia(574)-Noble Kingdom(574)-Royal bank(569)
Notes=Caprioska looks like will not get beat tommorrow.The other three are quite close in rating and amogst them Royal bank is surely likely to Follow caprioska home.
5=Rhapsodian snow(664)-Diego riveria(661)-Reflection of gold(648)-Orignality(628)
Notes=See the closeness amongst the first two but in my opinion 1400mts is sharp for Diego and if the speed of RS is utilised she will have it easy tommorrow.Watch out for reflection of gold for a good place bet.
6=Excellent Ability(580)-So much more(580)-Southern magic(569)-Leona cavello(563)
Notes=So much more and Southern magic have not beaten much .Also Leon cavello is a suspect type.Excellent Ability will require a really good one to beat her tommorrow.
7=Cruising(610)-forest Flair(605)-Celestial way(599)-Nox(584)
Notes=firts two tower over the field.last time in race 29 cruising has finished ahead of FF with a 7 kg diferance.Forest flair that day was hotly chasing D'gnan and was a clear 3 lenghts in front of Cruisng at the 250mts.Although FF won a 6F well lats time ,this time the diferance if 9.5 kgs between the two and CRUISING ran one heLl of a race in the fillies also.sHE IN MY OPININ IS THE ONE THEY ALL HAVE TO BEAT.
8=Spark of Jewel(569)-Born Beauty(563)-Step in style(561)-Your destiny(557)
Notes=In this poor bunch Sparks only looks best.Born beautyis out of this class but surprise that its not in track and swimming.But watch her if not tommrrow then one for the book.
All the best
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Dynamic Handicap Ratings for Mysore 8th July
1=Wellington(523)-Sticy Wicket Dot Com(522)-Winning attitde(519)-Raging River(519)
Notes=The first two will likely dominate the proceedings.Wellington if "on" should win.
2=Rain God(550)-Rock Breaker(543)-Pine Forest(542)-Pokeman Master(541)
Notes= a closely ratedrace.Keep a watch on Rock Breaker it had two good forward races and can strike.
3=Korporate(596)-Suryarath(595)-Black cat(578)-Amelia Cordeal(576)
Notes=Korporate should put up a good show.Watch out for Black cat for a longer odds place bet.
4=Thunder on(601)-Bridge too far(598)-Matter of opinino(587)-Easy Rider(585)
Notes=Thunder on is set for a Encore followed by Bridge too far.
5=Toofan mail(562)-Penny Tweedy(562)-Copen hagen(556)-Final Frontier(542)
Notes=Toofan mail is also set for an Encore
6=Ashkan(563)-Zindabad(556)-AL Qamar(552)-Serious warrior(552)
Notes :Ashan is a good yougster but is trusted too early for a 7F it needs to be seen how he tackles as it is too speedy and Mys last part to maintain momentum is tough.May be Al qamar and Zindabad are definetly a live threat.
7=Kalpavruksha(590)-Bee for you(589)-Lyra(582)-Royal view(580)
Notes= The first two belong to same trainer.Lyra also is a live threat in this company.Caution is advised.
8=Running Man(550)-Turbanator(548)-Roanake(545)-Cruise Control(533)
Notes=Running man in spite of not appearing on board this season is still the top rated in this race.definetly it will be a good each way bet.Roanake is hiding its form if properly handeled can upset.
To conclude:Korporate,Thunder on and toofan mail can continue their winning spree.Balck Cat ,Zindabad,AL Qamar an Running man can be taken a chance for place.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Week End Races
Some of my obseravtions over the last weekend races and a few for the note book amongst horses with good ratings.
1=Win Pretty baby as you know had highest rating but did not oblige because of the distance of 1400mts which is not her cup of tea.Watch her next outing over 1600 and above.
2=Seasons greetings has a very good rating of 562 which is almost the upper side of 20-45.Please keep an eye on him in near future for a coup.
3=Rugged beauty another high rating one ran second only due to the distance.Watch her land the spolis over 1400mts.
4=Whisper alley is slowly improving his rating and will soon strike.
5=BRUNETTA disappointed on sunday in spite of a good rating.Needs to be followed up over 1400mts .obseve the race she was tenderly handeled and also she was covering ground towards the end.
6=Just in Time another one with good rating disapointed .Here the sad luck was it could not go to the front.Just in time needs to travel freely out in front ,if there is a speedy front runner in the same race it is out.So lets wait patiently ,in my opinion without a genuine front runner Just in time in her present Dynamic rating can win upto 1400mts.
So all the best and wait the next post for Mysore
Saturday, July 4, 2009
DYNAMIC RATINGS FOR SUNDAY: 5.7.2009
DYNAMIC RATINGS FOR SUNDAY: 5.7.2009
Hope you will find these ratings useful in making a realistic short list of contenders. All the best.
1=Celestial Princess (548)-Simply Phenomenal (542)-Aim To Win (536)-Carnival of Joy (535)
Notes= Its between the first two. Watch the betting for Celestial Princess. Simply Phenomenal is capable of staging a pillar to post victory.
2= Brunetta (586)-Alaric (575)-Mighty Monarch (573)-Sweet Surrender (563)
Notes= They all have to beat Brunetta. Next best is Mighty Monarch.
3=Dantes Peak (590)-Movie Queen (572)-Mucho (568)-Refresh (564)
Notes= Dantes peak is capable of repeating in its current form.
4= Royal Premier (552)-Show Horse (552)-Constance (551)-AstonPark (551)- Grand rapids (551)
Notes= The closeness of the rating tells its tale. Five of them within one point. But watch out for Royal premier is capable of a Flutter with the right type of money.
5=Mighty Heart (614)-The contender (607)- Read my Mind (597)- Kyles of Bute (595)
Notes- Race is between the first two .Mighty Heart has an edge.
6= Noble Prince (633)- Arabian Knight (630) –Vanquish (630)-Fleeting arrow (625)
Notes= another close affair but the first two stand tall .Noble prince is a lazy one pace sort. When the two last met Arabian Knight was given a very tender ride .My vote goes for ARABIAN KNIGHT in a possible pillar to post show.
7=Sudden Thunder (582)-Buck passer Junior (578)-War Child (570)- Shisham (570)
Notes= War child is a one pace sort and may tire out .Sudden Thunder has fitness and start problems so also Buck passer. If Sudden Thunder takes a level break it will be difficult to beat.
8=Just in Time (609)- Calming Influence (606)-River Island (598)- Spirit of excellence (597)
Notes= The Race is between the first two. Last time JUST IN TIME was made to battle out with IN THE ZONE from the start and hence did not have anything in tank. This time in absence of a genuine front runner it can go and dictate its own pace and win. Calming influence being a late rusher can be there.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Dynamic Ratings for Saturday, July 4 Bangalore races
here are Dynamic Ratings for tomorrow's (July 4) Bangalore races. It is my hope that you will find them useful in shortlisting the contenders.
1=Trend Tracker (546)-Fantabulous Hero (541)-Pretty N Fast (540)-Mexican Wave (522)
Notes= Trend Trackers rating has improved very much and is an each way bet.
2=Spandau Ballet (578)- One (572)- Pelikano ( 565)- Mystic Star (565)
Notes=Spandau ballet won very impressively last time and can repeat. One can trouble.
3=Lush Lashes (567)- Black Beauty (567)- Lone Ranger ( 559)- Amazing Queen (534)
Notes=First three are closely rated. Amazing Queens rating is not yet established as it has run only once. Black Beauty is speedy but bound to stop. Lush lashes if handled judiciously will win followed by Lone Ranger.
4=Win Pretty baby (573)- Spark of Solitaire (546)- Cash is king (544) – Kingdom of Dreams (540)
Notes= Win P’baby is highest in rating but is moody and cannot be trusted. Looks like the race will boil down to Spar of Solitaire an impressive last outing winner and Kingdom of Dreams.
5=Fly For Sure (565)- Vayuputra (556)- Another Destiny (554)- Glory Bound (544)
Notes= Zaios and dark tan will cut a fast pace and since Fly for sure has a good finish and if kept up with the pace can easily win tomorrow. Vayuputra is also a late rusher but weight may stop it.
6=Portobello (590)- Bruckner( 587)- Flower Alley (585)- Hide and seek (527)
Notes= between the first two but looks like Bruckner will be a cinch.
7=Rugged Beauty (594)- Spark of Bronte (591)- Coorg Honey (586)-Senora Enigma ( 580).
Notes=If the finishing burst of Rugged Beauty is utilized well she will win but Spark of Bronte will not go down without a fight mind that. Senora Encima is a certain place bet.
8=Seven Star (574)- Aspiring Seven (557)- Monarchial( 549)- Neel Gagan( 546)
Notes = Although SS is highest in rating 6F is not its correct distance being one pace sort and moreover Aspiring Seven is very speedy. Also AS will also stop. This race is best left alone but Monorchial can be taken up as a sure place chance.