pl find the top four with potential to perform
1=Snow queen(574)-Fire vault(568)
Analysis=Last time the slow pace was the undoing for snow queen.This time should not lose
2=Pure Power(600)-Staristocraicy(585)-Stareer(571)
Analysis=Yougsters a word of caution but still i feel that with a rating of 600 and the company with which she has raced.Pure power is the one to beat.
3=Tymen(585)-Suvamente(584)-Arbudh(584)
Analysis=Just on epoint seperatng the top three.Yet my vote goes for aeach way bet on Tymen.
4=Magical mantra(543)-Urban Warruor(540)-Mohabi(539)-Sea Angel(531)
Analysis=Urban Warrior is out of this class and with a strong rider should win today from Sea angel who was not fully extended last outing and could run close
5=Lago Medio(653)-Forever Young(645)-Generalissimo(640)
Analysis=Generalsimmo would prefer 1200 and so would Lago Medio .Hence Forever young is the one to beat.
6=Shakti man(593)-The rebel(591)-Rising Glory(582)-Orion Star(581)
Analysis=Shaktiman i feel is all set for pune and should be watched first run there.Today may go easy.Rising glory if tried will win from Rebel.Orion star may find 1000mts short and will need watching at pune.
7=Eye of Storm(607)-Fantastic(593)-Mischivous Z(588)-Sea Dianmond(584)
Analysis=Eye of storm may find 5F a bit sharp.Mischivous Z last time saddle slip and is hiding its form the day its tried should win.Looks like today is the day.Fantastic definite place.
8=Always smile(594)-Super King(588)-Bonny Light(588)-Insite soul(574)
Analysis=Always smile and insite soul should fight out.
9=Young offende(612)-Fish pilot(604)-Tudor Regent(603)-Forwrad charge(603)
Analysis=Young offender will bring down the curtain to mumbai season follwed by Fish pilot and Forwrad charge.
2 comments:
sir, iam one of ur regular follower on what basis ur selection process goling on because i wonder about ur long shot win/place bet which nobody predicts could u teach me the method iam very much interested in racing
Dear Mr Arunachalan,
Some of the people have requested for an insight in the handicapping/Dynamic Handicapping theory.I put forth my little and humble undertsnding of the same.
Pl find an insight on the dynamic Handicapping theory: Taught in a session taken by mr Praksah Gosavi.
Its common knowledge that if we make a purchase of something weighing about 4 kgs and carry it our pace of walking is slower than usual.if it takes 3 minutes to walk one furlong bare handed,thenit will take 3.5 minutes to cover same distance with the weight.This basically is the underlying principle of any handicap theory.
Horses are alloted different weights based on their performance, by the official handicapper so that all are on paper supposed to run with same chance and if its true then there will be multiple dead heats in all events.in reality it does not happen as we all know that apart from handicap several factors like fitness,stable intention,luck of the race etc come to play.
But in reality the handicap theory helps to narrow down the choice to three /fourin a race haveing best chance.
In the old convential Handicapping system,which also i used to practice based on a book called"master Key of races " by T Bhutaney.Here the comparision is made between the official handicapper and my system based on revised weights.The calculation is done based on the number of lengths the horse has won by,winner beating the second,second to third and third to fourth.
Generally in covential handicapping much stress was placed only on the first four on board and for the rest a thumb rule is used to reduce the weight(ratingwas not in vouge then)in when they next run.1 length was considered as 1.5 kgs and an adjustment was made accordingly when the horse ran next.
Here the simili ends and Dynamic handicapping is more in detail.In DH the revised rating calculation is done upto the horse finishing last and all four parameters that is distance won/lost,weight carried,timing,and the track correction are applied and no thumb rule deductions./drop in ratings for no show animals.
Here is where the Dynamic Theory has an edge.It considers The distance by which won/Lost,the distance ran, the timing clocked and most important the MOTHER CHART, the judious understanding of the same helps to get a near perfect rating for comparision when the horse races next.The mother chart is so unique for each Category and can be explained only in detailed interaction.further when the horse races next there is an adjustment that has to be done for each and every parameter that is weight carried,distance run,category ,timing clocked,vis a vis last run and present run.
Finally when all runners have their DH avaialble look for the First three/Four highest in rating in the race and in all probabilities the likely contenders are narrowed down.
The updation of the DH by using the scientific calculaor and formulas given in the detailed notes has to be done relegiously.Nothing comes without sweat and effort, the same principle holds good here also.One has to work to keep the Revised ratings updated and need to spend time.
No system can in racing give cent percent results because other than the DH other factors are also there as discussed earlier, which i suppose all knowledgeable agree.
I have been trying my hand on several handicapping theories But my experience with this system over the past 5 years is its results are quite satisfactory and can be felt only if one experiences over a continous span.
All the best.
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